TIMOR-LESTE AFTER XANANA GUSMÃO

[Jakarta, 16 July 2014] Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão may or may not step down later this year but Timor-Leste still needs a transition to a younger generation so that its political institutions can develop.

In its latest report, Timor-Leste After Xanana Gusmão, IPAC looks at the highly personalistic system of post-independence governance in which a tiny elite of ageing resistance leaders has dominated political life. It has kept key parts of the government, including the security sector, tied to the old Falintil guerrilla army, meaning that past rivalries and feuds can have an inordinate impact.

“Xanana Gusmão’s personal authority has been a huge source of strength, but it has also become an impediment to institutional development,” says Cillian Nolan, deputy director of IPAC. Gusmão, former Falintil commander-in-chief, helped restore stability after command of the country’s security forces collapsed in 2006, but he also became seen as the one person who could keep tensions in the security sector and ex-Falintil grievances under control.

In November 2013, Gusmão announced that he would step down sometime this year. The announcement came in the course of a five-hour nationally televised lecture to rebut charges made by an old guerrilla rival, Mauk Moruk, who had once challenged Gusmao’s leadership in 1984 and returned after 30 years in exile to do it again. The political impact of Mauk Moruk’s return was disproportionate to the near negligible security threat he posed, but it underscored how closed and small Timor-Leste’s leadership circle remains.

While many Timorese are now sceptical that Gusmão will leave office this year, he will almost certainly not run again in the 2017 general elections and may well resign earlier. The report looks at the state of the police and the army and the security challenges his successor will face. Some of these arise from the need to retire remaining Falintil members from active duty, some from old political cleavages, some from a rapidly growing population with limited job prospects.

The old guard, sometimes called the 1975 Generation, has not done a good job of grooming younger leaders. The most likely scenario, especially given a warming in relations between Gusmão and his old political foe Mari Alkatiri, is for a managed transition with the country’s current president, Taur Matan Ruak, becoming prime minister in 2017. Gusmão’s rapprochement with Alkatiri, and an assurance that the Fretilin leader will not seek to immediately replace him, were probably a prerequisite for the idea of resignation. There is now much talk in Dili of “consensus” politics, and moves to appoint Gusmão as a kind of Minister Mentor, or part of a Council of Elders. But this approach may only perpetuate the country’s dependence on the old leadership.

“In the medium term, the best way to manage Gusmão’s exit from political office and safeguard stability is to allow more, not less competition between and within parties”, says Nolan. “This is the only process that can bring forward the broader crop of younger leaders that Timor-Leste needs.”