PHILIPPINES: AVOIDING A ZERO-SUM GAME IN THE 2025 BARMM ELECTIONS

[Jakarta, 8 August 2024] President Marcos and his advisers should stay neutral on the coming 2025 parliamentary elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). The recommendation comes as some in the president’s inner circle are suggesting that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) needs another three years in power – one more election cycle to consolidate the peace.

“Philippines: Avoiding a Zero-Sum Game in the 2025 BARMM Elections”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta and the third in a series on the elections, looks at increasing violence as two large parties and many small ones compete to win seats in the Bangsamoro Parliament and secure the all-important position of Chief Minister in May 2025. The main contest will be the MILF’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) and an alliance of traditional clan leaders known as the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC).

“The idea that peace depends on the MILF staying in power is flawed,” says Sidney Jones, IPAC’s senior adviser. “If it’s not clear that the BGC will do any better, it’s also not clear that they will do any worse.” A BCG victory would, however, end the hope that BARMM, with its unprecedented experiment in parliamentary democracy, could fundamentally change the political culture of the region.

IPAC notes that there is no guarantee that the unfinished business of the peace process in BARMM, especially the final round of decommissioning of MILF combatants, will be any closer to completion by 2028, mainly because the armed combatants constitute the MILF’s strongest bargaining chip. No progress has been made on dismantling of private armed groups; the biggest source of violence as the elections approach is targeted assassinations by unidentified gunmen. If some fear that an MILF defeat could lead to a loss in patronage and therefore dangerous discontent among former fighters, the president and his advisers should be helping craft a better-managed reintegration program rather than trying to prop up one side in power.

The report is a snapshot of election preparations as of July 2024. It examines the electoral strength of the parties that have registered to take part in the election, the alliances being formed, the internal rifts, and the ethnic and regional issues involved. And critically, it examines the political interests of key actors in Manila and how these could affect the outcome in BARMM.