PHILIPPINES: THE IMPACT OF SULU'S EXCLUSION FROM BARMM

[Jakarta, 17 February 2025] Sulu’s exclusion from the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) via a Supreme Court ruling serves the interests of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the short term and no one in the long term. The decision reinforces the power of traditional clans and marginalises the ethnic Tausug component of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), an outcome that could have serious security consequences.

“Philippines: The Impact of Sulu’s Exclusion from BARMM”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) examines the impact of the September 2024 ruling on the BARMM elections, Sulu politics, and relations between the islands and the mainland provinces of BARMM more generally.

“The end result is a shrunken BARMM that can no longer claim to represent all of Muslim Mindanao,” says Sidney Jones, IPAC senior adviser.

The Supreme Court ruling, in response to a petition from Sulu submitted six years earlier, came as it was becoming increasingly clear that the MILF was going to lose control of the autonomous region it had fought for in a long struggle that ended with a comprehensive peace agreement and the creation of BARMM in 2019. An opposition coalition known as the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC) was poised to win the first-ever BARMM parliamentary elections, then scheduled for May 2025, to be held at the same time as national mid-term elections for mayors and governors. The Supreme Court ruling led to the postponement of the parliamentary elections; the undercutting of the BGC; and the removal of one of its leaders, Sulu Gov. Sakur Tan, from contention for the all-powerful position of BARMM Chief Minister. The likely outcome is now some form of power-sharing between the MILF’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) and the BGC.

In the meantime, violence is rising in Central Mindanao as the old Maguindanao clans, which dominate what is left of BARMM, compete among each other for power, spoils, and backing from Manila. It is also rising in Basilan where a power struggle between two popular half-brothers is intensifying. The biggest security problem for the future is probably in Sulu, where the ethnic Tausug from the MNLF and the much-weakened Abu Sayyaf Group now have little political representation. Gov. Tan can keep any grievances under control for now. The potential for upheaval in the longer term, however, is high.