IPAC SHORT BRIEFING NO.3: COVID-19 AND THE MUJAHIDIN OF EASTERN INDONESIA (MIT)

[28 April 2020] The renewal of violence in Poso, Central Sulawesi in March and April 2020 is the direct result of local extremists seeing Covid-19 as an ally in the war against Islam’s enemies. The arrival of the virus gave the Mujahidin of Eastern Indonesia (Mujahidin Indonesia Timur, MIT) a new hope that victory was near, and buoyed by the addition of new recruits, it began a series of attacks.

The violence was made possible by MIT’s recovery after joint military-police operations in 2016 led to  the  killing  of  its then  leader, Santoso and the decimation of his  already  small  band. Under  the leadership of Ali  Kalora, MIT embarked on a recruitment  program that  brought it up  to  about  20 combatants and a few guns but with crucial support in some communities.

Those  few  fighters  have  managed  to  hold  off  thousands of police and military for  more  than  four years.  At its height  in  2016,  Operation Tinombala involved some  2,400  troops,  including some of Indonesia’s most elite military and paramilitary units. As of late 2019, combined military-police strength in Poso was believed to be about 600.

MIT’s  rebirth suggests that a much-heralded deradicalisation program, led by police in Poso and aimed at convincing former MIT members to disassociate themselves from extremism, had limited impact beyond the individuals themselves. The program successfully turned several former prisoners away from extremism but did not stop recruitment, did not weaken pockets of local support for MIT and did not stop a few  communities that had long been involved in conflict from seeing  police as the enemy. A “re-radicalisation” campaign by a pro-ISIS cleric may have had as much influence as the police program.

This short briefing explains how MIT recovered, why it saw the emergence of COVID-19 as a chance to  attack its enemies and what the future of MIT could be in Poso. The  immediate concern is the possibility of new attacks during Ramadan but there is a  longer-term threat as well. MIT has shown a capacity for regeneration that suggests the need for more work in vulnerable communities.